Predicting the winner of the FIFA World Cup is an activity that a lot of people, and animals, have engaged in. But while most have relied on whims and somewhat debatable analysis, the one which has taken an empirical approach in the matter has forecast another France-Argentina title clash, with Le Bleus coming out on top this time.
If the prediction by data analysts Opta comes true, football fans around the world may be treated to a repeat of arguably the greatest World Cup final in history, in which Lionel Messi’s Argentina came up trumps in a penalty shootout despite a Kylian Mbappe hat-trick.
According to Opta, France had started the 2026 tournament as second-favourites (13 percent) but a stellar group stage performance has bumped them to the top spot with an 18.7 percent chance of adding to their two titles, ahead of Argentina (16.3 percent) and Spain (13.5 percent).
After the group stage, the Opta supercomputer simulated the remainder of the 2026 World Cup 25,000 times to produce its knockout-stage predictions, revealing each team’s chances of reaching the final and lifting the trophy.
France won all three of their group games for the first time since 1998, when they won the World Cup on home soil. Opta expects them to beat Sweden in the Round of 32 before potential meetings with Germany and Spain further deep in the draw.
The draw seems to have opened up for Argentina. A Round of 32 meeting with debutants Cape Verde is a favourable outcome, and they could face either Australia or Egypt in the last 16 followed by a quarterfinal against one of Switzerland, Colombia, Ghana or Algeria. It probably won’t be until the semifinals that Argentina face a genuine heavyweight of the game, with Brazil or England their likely opponents at that stage, Opta predicted.
Spain were favourites coming into the tournament, but have somewhat slipped in Opta’s reckoning. They can expect a tough Round of 16 meeting with neighbours Portugal, but should get through for a quarterfinal against one of the United States, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal.
England (9.7 percent) and Brazil (6.5 percent) sit fourth and fifth on Opta’s table, while the Netherlands’ chances have improved from 3.6 to 5.1 percent after the group stage. Among the three host countries, the USA is expected to go deepest in the draw. There’s a 42.5 percent chance of them reaching the quarterfinals while the corresponding numbers for Mexico and Canada are 28.3 and 25.2 percent respectively.