Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev
By the end of his quarterfinal win over Martin Landaluce on Thursday evening, Medvedev had elevated his game to something close to its peak. He had his opponent smiling in disbelief at his returns that landed on the baseline, his forehands that skidded through the corners, his overheads that dove in at the last second, and his swing volleys into the open court. The normally defensive-minded Russian was making red-lining look easy.
What does he get for a reward? A Friday semifinal against the top-seeded Sinner, who finished his own match, in straight sets, many hours earlier.
Medvedev, as he surely doesn’t need to be reminded, hasn’t had any answers for the Italian recently. He’s 1-9 in their last 10 matches, and has gone set-less against him for nearly two years. Not only will he be coming in on less rest than Sinner for this semifinal, he’ll be facing him in front of his home fans, who would love to see him win his national title for the first time.
What can Medvedev do to fend off all of these factors that are lined up against him? He needs to keep doing what he was doing Thursday night. The last time he faced Sinner, in the Indian Wells final in March, Medvedev was also in all-out attack mode, and he basically fought the world No. 1 to a draw from the baseline. Both sets went to tiebreakers, and Medvedev had chances to win each of them. In the second, Sinner appeared to be on the verge of cramping in the heat, but rescued himself with a series of pinpoint, pressure-packed winners. If it had gone to a third, Medvedev might have won.
On Thursday, in his quarterfinal, Sinner also had a physical issue. Whether it was a cramp, or a leg injury, or tiredness, he suddenly struggled to get the ball over the net late in the second set against Andrey Rublev. Once again, he saved himself with the quality of his shots and served out the match in two.
Medvedev should feel confident that he can (a) go toe-to-toe with Sinner, and (b) possibly wear him down physically. But even combined, I don’t think those two things give him a 50 percent chance of winning. Sinner has been too good—this year, in Masters 1000s, and against this opponent—to be anything other than a solid favorite. Winner: Sinner