There are Grand Slam draws with heavy favorites. There are others where anyone can conceivably win. And then there are the in between majors—and they may be the best—where a coterie of three or four or five players form a ruling elite. The 2026 Roland Garros women’s event seems to be the latter.
Aryna Sabalenka is No. 1, and was last year’s runner-up. Elena Rybakina is No. 2, and she won the Australian Open. Iga Swiatek is No. 3, and she’s a four-time winner here. Coco Gauff is No. 4, and the defending champion. None of them won a title in Madrid or Rome this month, but they still comprise a core four of contenders. They’ll be joined by a few dark horses, including the two players who did win those titles, Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk, as well as Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, and Karolina Muchova.
If we’re looking for a tournament that’s not too predictable, but not too random, that seems like a good starting point. Let’s see how the draw shook out.
First Quarter
Sabalenka is still at the top of the hill, but you wouldn’t say she is in a commanding position as she arrives in Paris. She lost to Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, and Sorana Cirstea in Rome, and she’s still looking for her first title at Roland Garros after several heartbreaks.
But maybe that’s not a bad position for her. The last time Sabalenka won a major, at the US Open in 2025, she didn’t look great coming in. And she hasn’t always fared well late in Slams when she’s been the overwhelming favorite.
Her draw seems manageable, too. She’ll start with Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, who should be a suitable first-round test. She could play Naomi Osaka in the round of 16; they’ve met twice already this spring, and Sabalenka has won both. In the quarters, if the seeds hold, she’ll get No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, She’s 9-3 against the American, but their recent matches have been close.
First-round matches to watch:
Iva Jovic vs. Alex Eala
Naomi Osaka vs. Laura Siegemund
🔸 Semifinalist: Sabalenka