Once upon a time, having an overwhelming favorite in the men’s field was the norm at Roland Garros. For nearly 20 years, Rafael Nadal was that person. Now, for the first time since Rafa’s heyday ended in 2022, we have that scenario again.
As this year’s edition of the tournament begins, Jannik Sinner is all alone at the top. He’s not the King of Clay and probably never will be, but he has had a Rafa-like spring, winning all three Masters 1000s on dirt, in Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome, each for the first time. It didn’t hurt that his biggest rival, Carlos Alcaraz, was absent for the last two of those, as he will be in Paris.
To me, that leaves us with two headline questions: Can Sinner withstand the pressure of knowing that his first Roland Garros title is virtually in his grasp? And can anyone dangerous enough to give him a run—Novak Djokovic, Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar, maybe Medvedev or Zverev—last long enough to face him, and give him a jolt of nerves?
First Quarter
At this point, Sinner doesn’t need any help from the draw gods, but they appear to have been kind to him anyway. Four of the players who could conceivably give him a run here—Djokovic, Rafael Jodar, Arthur Fils, and Joao Fonseca—are in the opposite half. The second-highest seed in his quarter is Ben Shelton; Sinner is 9-1 against him. The first two seeds he could face are Corentin Moutet and Luciano Darderi; he’s 3-0 against them combined.
But there are a couple of players to at least keep an eye on. In the third round Sinner might play Martin Landaluce, a promising 20-year-old Spaniard who made the quarters in Rome. Later, he could run up against Alexander Bublik, one of the few men who owns a win over Sinner in the last 12 months. But the always-unpredictable Bublik would have to make it to the quarters to take his shot.
First-round matches to watch:
Matteo Berrettini vs. Marton Fuscsovics
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jaume Munar
Frances Tiafoe vs. fellow American Eliot Spizziri
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alexandre Muller
Semifinalist: Sinner