Rafael Jodar vs. Jesper de Jong
With Carlos Alcaraz out of action, Jodar, 19, will be the hottest ticket in town. Spain’s latest prodigy is a native of Madrid, and a product of its training facilities; the Caja Magica may feel like a second home to him. He has made waves on tour this spring, winning his first title, in Marrakech, and making the semifinals in Barcelona. The latter was his pro debut on Spanish soil; now he’ll take over the stage in its capital city.
Jodar and De Jong, a 25-year-old from the Netherlands, have never played. De Jong is currently ranked 109th, and has climbed as high as 71st. He hits a clean forehand and two-handed backhand, but at 5’11, he’ll be giving up four inches to Jodar. De Jong’s biggest win by ranking was over Flavio Cobolli when the Italian was ranked 34th. Jodar is already 42nd.
Clay can be the great equalizer between players of different sizes, but in this case, the dirt in Madrid seems tailor made for Jodar’s strong serve and even stronger ground strokes. Winner: Jodar
Alexandra Eala vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Eala is a 20-year-old newcomer and Pavlyuchenkova is a 34-year-old who turned pro in 2005—i.e., the same year Eala was born.
Whatever their differences in age, they’re both on the tall side—5’9—and they both love to do the same thing: Swing hard and ask questions later.
Both are, not surprisingly, consistently inconsistent. Eala is having the better 2026. She’s 15-10, while Pavlyuchenkova, who is making a mid-30s comeback, is 0-6 so far this season. Eala has the advantage of youth, and the leg speed and arm speed that come with it. Pavlyuchenkova has the advantage of experience; she has been playing in Madrid since the Magic Box opened in 2009.
Only rarely has she played it well, though. Despite fast clay that should be to her liking, the Russian is just 16-15 here. She has won two qualifying matches this week, but I’ll still take the player who has done better in main draws this year. Winner: Eala