Preview and Prediction
“He’s been, in the past, a player who made me improve a lot,” Sinner says of Medvedev. “I had to change also my game style.”
It may be hard to remember now, but once upon a time Medvedev was a major obstacle for Sinner in his quest to reach the top of the sport. Starting in 2020 and running through the 2023 Miami final, the Russian won their first six meetings. When Sinner finally broke through against him in the 2023 Beijing final, something clicked. A month later, he would go on to beat Novak Djokovic for the first time. Two months after that, he would beat Djokovic and Medvedev back to back to win his first major title, at the Australian Open.
Something clicked against Medvedev, and stayed clicked. After losing his first six matches to him, Sinner has won eight of the last nine. That 2024 Australian Open final, which Medvedev led two sets to love, sent the Italian on a path to No. 1, and sent Medvedev on a gradual decline that ended with him out of the Top 10, and split from his long-time coach, by the end of 2025.
Now, finally, Meddy has recovered and is back to his old self. He has a new coach, he has two titles this year, he’s won 10 straight matches, and he just notched his biggest win in a couple of years, over Carlos Alcaraz. Watching him in that match, Jim Courier said it was the best, most aggressive baseline tennis he had ever seen from him.
Medvedev himself wouldn’t go that far.
“I feel like I’m playing great, very good tennis,” Medvedev says. “I never want to jump into conclusions like best tennis of my life or whatever. I’m playing very good.”
Whether it’s his best-ever level or not, Medvedev will likely need to reach it again on Sunday. He and Sinner are roughly even in the serve, consistency, and movement departments. But Sinner has the edge in ground-stroke pace; he can inject more of it, especially on his forehand side, than Medvedev.
But will that be true again on Sunday? Medvedev beat Alcaraz in large part because he added a significant number of miles per hour to his shots, without suffering any loss of control. Sinner singled out Medvedev’s return as a shot he’s hitting with more depth.
“Right now, I’m in confidence and when I’m in confidence, I always said I feel like I’m an aggressive player, especially on my serve,” Medvedev says. “It’s a bit different on the return. But even on the return, whenever I get the opportunity with one great return, and today was the same, I tried to dictate.”
Sinner looks like the player we’ve seen for the last three years, the guy who went to No. 1, the guy who won eight of nine against Medvedev. Over the past month, Medvedev has looked the player we knew from 2018 to 2023, the guy who also went to No. 1, the guy who beat Sinner seven straight times. Put those two things together and you have the makings of an excellent final.
Could the result be tipped by where the match is taking place? Medvedev has won 23 titles in 22 cities; he didn’t have a repeat until last month in Dubai. He hasn’t won yet in Indian Wells. Winner: Sinner