For most of the past three years, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been the co-favorites whenever they’ve entered the same tournament. They’re the top two seeds again in Indian Wells, but this time it feels a little different. Alcaraz, with his wins at the US Open and the Australian Open, has opened up some daylight between himself and his rival. The Spaniard, a two-time champ in IW, is the favorite; the Italian, who has never made a semi there, is the underdog.
History says that neither of these two will maintain the upper hand for long. Can Sinner close the gap in IW, or will Alcaraz stay perfect in 2026?
Or could someone else upset their two-man apple cart? Here’s a look at the men’s draw
First Quarter
Everything has been coming up Carlitos. He’s 12-0 in 2026, and 27-1 at the last four majors. Now he’s returning to one his favorite events, where he has won twice. Is there anyone in his quarter who has a prayer of stopping him?
At first glance, the answer would seem to be: Probably not. Alex De Minaur is the No, 2 seed in this section, but he’s 0-6 against Alcaraz. Alexander Bublik has giant-killing skills, but he would need to make the quarters to face him, something he has never done here. Casper Ruud has had his duels with Alcaraz, and likes slow hard courts, but he’s had a middling start to the year. Botic Van de Zandschulp, a possible third-round opponent, may have the best résumé, having beaten Alcaraz at the US Open two years ago.
Wild Card: Michael Zheng. The New Jersey native and Columbia University senior—who is writing a diary for TENNIS.com—takes on Arthur Cazaux of France
First-round match to watch: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Terence Atmane. There should be shot-making
Second Quarter
Novak Djokovic took a while to announce that he was coming to Indian Wells. Which probably isn’t surprising, since he hasn’t tended to stick around the desert for long in recent years. He has failed to make it past the fourth round in his last five attempts, dating back to 2017.
Still, Djokovic is a four-time IW champ, and he’ll make the draw more interesting for as long as he’s in it. After his run to the final in Australia, he must feel like he has chance to win some matches. His road could look like this: Mpetshi Perricard in the second round; Moutet or Hurkacz in the third; Draper or Cerundolo in the fourth; Medvedev or Fritz in the quarters.
The first step for Medvedev, of course, is making it to the site; right now he’s stuck in Dubai due to the war in Iran. If he can get there, though, he should be contender. As much as he claims to hate the courts in Indian Wells, he has made the final twice on them, and he’s coming off a title run in Dubai. A fourth-round collision with Taylor Fritz could be on the table.
Returning: Jack Draper. He’s the defending champion, but is just finding his feet again after prolonged absence due to an upper arm injury