Amanda Anisimova vs. Ajla Tomljanovic
The American and the Australian start things off bright and early at 11 on the Grandstand. Height-wise, these two are a match: They’re both 5’11. Rankings-wise, not so much: Anisimova is No. 6, Tomljanovic No. 81. But there are a couple of reasons why this might not be the blowout those numbers would indicate.
First, Tomljanovic is 2-0 against Anisimova. Granted, the first of those matches was played in Waco, Texas, in 2017, when Anisimova was all of 16. And granted, the second was played in San Jose in 2021, when Tomljanovic was in the Top 50 and on her way to a career-high of 32. But those wins still count evidence that she can handle Anisimova’s power.
Second, there have been signs of resurgence from Tomljanovic, and signs of regression from Anisimova, after her brilliant 2025. Small signs, in both cases. Tomljanovic has won two matches in each of her last two events, and she took Jasmine Paolini to three sets in Indian Wells. Anisimova, meanwhile, was beaten with surprising ease by Victoria Mboko last week.
Anisimova is all the things her superior ranking says she is: A cleaner ball-striker, a more powerful hitter, and a better all-around player. But Tomljanovic, who already has a win in Miami, can deal with pace, and may be due a signature 2026 win. Winner: Tomljanovic
Naomi Osaka vs. Talia Gibson
I’m sure Gibson doesn’t want to play qualies her whole life, but they seem to put her in a winning frame of mind. Last week in Indian Wells, the 21-year-old Australian won two qualifying matches, then beat three Top 20 opponents—Alexandrova, Tauson, and Paolini—on her way to the quarterfinals of the main draw. So far in Miami, she has won two more in the qualies, and steamrolled Sara Bejlek 1 and 0 in the first round.
That brings Gibson to her highest-profile matchup so far. Osaka spent a lot of her youth in this part of Florida, and she has been pretty good at the Miami Open; she’s 17-8, with a final-round appearance in 2022. She’s coming off a decent showing in Indian Wells, where she won two matches before coming up short against Aryna Sabalenka.
Osaka and Gibson should generate some fireworks from the baseline when they meet in the third show court, Butch Buchholz Arena. They’re both tall, they both hit hard and fairly flat, and they both attack the corners at the first opportunity. With Osaka, the forehand is lethal, with Gibson, at least from what I’ve seen, it seems to be the two-handed backhand.
Gibson has more momentum; Osaka has more experience—and probably a deeper well of confidence to draw from. Winner: Osaka
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Joao Fonseca
This is the one we’ve been waiting for—can you say that of a second-round contest? In truth, Alcaraz-Fonseca is a matchup the tennis world has wanted to see since the Brazilian started firing off forehands, and rising up the rankings, early last year.
Back then, Fonseca, then 18, seemed to me to be the first newcomer who had incorporated some of Alcaraz’s full-throttle style from the forehand side. And also like Alcaraz in his earliest days on tour, Fonseca needed to learn to do more than swing for the fences. After taking a few expected lumps in 2025, and recovering from an injury or two, he seems ready to continue advancing again. In Indian Wells, Fonseca played Jannik Sinner for the first time, and acquitted himself well. He went toe-to-toe with him from the ground, and had chances in both sets before losing in two tiebreakers.
Now he gets his first crack at Alcaraz. The setting couldn’t be better: Friday night in the Brazilian stronghold of Miami. Alcaraz will have his fans, too, of course, and he’ll be a solid favorite. We don’t know how their games and their ground strokes will matchup, exactly. Fonseca’s pace could feed into Alcaraz’s and help lift the Spaniard to greater shot-making heights. Or Alcaraz could be off, as he can be. Last year here, he lost to David Goffin in his opener.
That was Alcaraz’s last bad defeat for months. I’m going to bet he won’t want to leave Miami so early again. Winner: Alcaraz