Aryna Sabalenka is the defending champion and has been No. 1 all season. But has Iga Swiatek, with her wins at Wimbledon and Cincinnati, and her rise back to No. 2, made herself the favorite at the year’s last major?
Three takeaways from the US Open women’s draw.
Could Sabalenka and Swiatek’s first major final happen in New York?
They’re the solid favorites. But If I had a choice of roads to the title match, I’d take Iga’s over Aryna’s.
Sabalenka’s quarter may not be a Group of Death, exactly, but it has more than the usual share of dangers. Leylah Fernandez, who beat Sabalenka here in 2021, is her potential third-round opponent. Clara Tauson or Elise Mertens, both quality players, could be her fourth-round foe. And in the quarters she could face either Jasmine Paolini, who made the final in Cincinnati, or Elena Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka on hard courts at the same event.
Swiatek, meanwhile, probably likes what she sees in her section. Amanda Anisimova is the second-highest seed; we saw what happened when they played at Wimbledon. After that are Elina Svitolina and Ekaterina Alexandrova; Swiatek is 8-3 against them combined. The first seed Swiatek could face is Anna Kalinskaya; Iga just beat her in straights in Cincy.
As far as their potential semifinal opponents go, Swiatek could play Coco Gauff or Madison Keys, while Sabalenka is projected to face either Jessica Pegula or Mirra Andreeva. None of those four are on fire at the moment.