In most ways, the women’s draw at Roland Garros doesn’t look much different than it did the last few years. Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are still at the top of the seedings; last year’s surprise runner-up, Jasmine Paolini, is a not-so-surprising fourth seed now; and last year’s teenage semifinalist, Mirra Andreeva, is now a contender for the crown.
But there’s one big difference, and it’s enough to make this year’s event feel like a whole new world: For the first time since 2021, Iga Swiatek isn’t the favorite, isn’t among the Top 4 seeds, doesn’t have a clay-court title, and isn’t even playing well.
Here’s a look at how Swiatek’s status may change the landscape, and who’s poised to take advantage of it.
Things have gone from bad to worse for Swiatek in 2025. She hasn’t won a title, she’s dropped out of the Top 4 for the first time since 2021 and, instead of rounding into form before Roland Garros, she has rounded out of it. Her last two losses, to Coco Gauff in Madrid and Danielle Collins in Rome, represented a total collapse in confidence.
But as Swiatek’s hero, Rafael Nadal, proved in 2015 and 2022, if you love Roland Garros enough, you can win it even without winning any of its tune-up tournaments. If Iga can get two or three wins under her belt, her Chatrier muscle memory might kick in, and her confidence will come with it.
Even then, though, she might need some help. Jelena Ostapenko, a player Swiatek has never beaten, and Elena Rybakina, who has beaten her four times, are potential fourth-round opponents. Rome champion Jasmine Paolini is a potential quarterfinal foe.
On paper, if Swiatek’s slump continues and she’s knocked out early, the favorite spot would go to Sabalenka first, and Gauff second. Both have been sharp for most of the clay swing so far—but not all of it.
Sabalenka is the world’s best player. She’s 34-6 on the year, and has six titles, including Madrid on clay. Despite that, she’s still prone to the odd off day, and still can struggle to stay calm and fight her way out of it. In the past two months, she has lost finals to Mirra Andreeva and Jelena Ostapenko, and suffered her first defeat in seven matches versus Zheng Qinwen.
So Sabalenka isn’t invincible, especially at Roland Garros, where she has never made the final. The question is whether anyone in her quarter can make her sweat, and possibly implode. The most likely candidates would seem to be three hard-hitters that she could face in the third and fourth rounds, Collins, Clara Tauson, and Amanda Anisimova. If she advances past them, she might face Zheng again.