If the ultimate goal were to make the final, Aryna Sabalenka would be the heavy favorite at this year’s Australian Open. In the last 12 majors, she has played for the title six times. But when it comes to winning those final-round matches, she’s only half as good. Since the start of 2023, she’s 3-3 in Slam finals. She’s the rare player who has stayed No. 1 for 65 straight weeks, while also losing as many big matches as she wins.
Sabalenka has done both in Melbourne: In 2023 and 2024, she won it all; last year she lost a heartbreaker to Madison Keys in the final. We can pretty much bank on her reaching the business end of the event this year. Who might join her there?
First Quarter
Sabalenka has been cool and collected so far in 2026, and for good reason. She finished 2025 with a victory at the US Open, and started this season with another in Brisbane, where she didn’t drop a set or have a meltdown.
There’s no one in her draw that should make her panic, exactly, but there are a couple of opponents who have troubled her in the past. Her potential third-round foe, Emma Raducanu, nearly beat her in Cincinnati last summer. And a potential fourth-round opponent, Clara Tauson, knocked her off 6-3, 6-2 last winter in Dubai. But the woman who is lined up to play her in the quarters, Jasmine Paolini, wouldn’t seem to be a threat: Sabalenka has won their last five matches, all in straight sets.