How each team can make the World Test Championship final
Five nations, including reigning champions Australia, still in running to make third edition of WTC decider
There’s still a lot of water to go under the bridge before we know which countries will be battling it out in the World Test Championship final at Lord’s next June.
There are 14 Tests of consequence (spread across five series) to come, with the next one being the Border-Gavaskar Trophy opener in Perth from November 22.
Australia currently sit atop the WTC standings following India’s loss to New Zealand, but that will matter little if they don’t continue to win.
All of Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa will fancy their chances of making June’s decider having all come off impressive series victories.
Australia
P 12 | W 8 | D 1 | L 3 | Pen -10 | Points 90 | PCT% 62.50
Remaining Tests: Five v India (home), two v Sri Lanka (away)
Form guide (most recent first): W W L W W
Australia are the only team with a points percentage about 60. However, with seven Tests still to come, the most of any remaining contending side, their percentage could still fluctuate a lot.
Five wins out of seven would guarantee their participation in June’s final, but four or fewer will leave their fate in the hands of other nations.
If Australia win four and lose three, they could miss out on the top two if New Zealand win 3-0 over England and South Africa win three of their four Tests against Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, any Kiwi slip up in this scenario (even a 2-0 win) would see the Aussies progress.
If Australia only manage three wins (along with three losses and a draw), they would need England to win multiple Tests or South Africa to lose multiple.
India
P 14 | W 8 | D 1 | L 5 | Pen -2 | Points 98 | PCT% 58.33
Remaining Tests: Five v Australia (away)
Form guide: L L L W W
A month ago it looked as if India would waltz through to a third straight WTC final appearance, but getting swept at home by the Kiwis has really hurt their chances.
The equation for India is pretty simple; they have to defeat Australia and retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy to remain a chance.
India can still finish in the top two if the series is drawn (0-0, 1-1 or 2-2), but it would require England to win at least one Test in New Zealand and South Africa to lose multiple Tests to Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka
P 9 | W 5 | D 0 | L 4 | Pen 0 | Points 60 | PCT% 55.56
Remaining Tests: Two v South Africa (away), two v Australia (home)
Form guide: W W W L L
Sri Lanka will definitely need some other results to go their way but the possibility of them making their first WTC Final is real.
The key for the Lankans will be winning both Tests against Australia at home, which opens up several avenues for progression, especially if they can steal a win or a draw in South Africa.
A sole win in each series would work too, but they will be eliminated if they win only one of their remaining four Tests.
Sri Lanka’s form is good – they won the third Test in England (a series they lost 2-1) and then made light work of New Zealand at home, winning 2-0 which included a huge innings victory in the second Test.
New Zealand
P 11 | W 6 | D 0 | L 5 | Pen 0 | Points 72 | PCT% 54.55
Remaining Tests: Three v England (home)
Form guide: W W W L L
New Zealand stormed back into calculations with a stunning 3-0 victory over India away from home.
A clean sweep of England, just like against the Indians, would guarantee the 2021 champions another WTC Final appearance.
There are paths where a 2-1 win would also work for the Kiwis, but in all likelihood a drawn series or worse would end their campaign.
The Blackcaps looked down and out after losing 2-0 to Sri Lanka in September, but the tables have turned under Tom Latham’s leadership.
South Africa
P 8 | W 4 | D 1 | L 3 | Pen 0 | Points 52 | PCT% 54.17
Remaining Tests: Two v Sri Lanka (home), two v Pakistan (home)
Form guide: W W W D L
South Africa are in the enviable position of having all their remaining matches at home. Should they win all four (and even three could be enough), they will find themselves in their maiden WTC Final.
It’s a stunning turnaround from the Proteas, who as recently as February sent a second-choice side to New Zealand. Since then, South Africa knocked off West Indies 1-0 in August and crushed Bangladesh 2-0 in October.
Eliminated
England, Pakistan, Bangladesh, West Indies