In the last 36 hours, the Roland Garros men’s event has gone from a foregone conclusion to a mad scramble.
As recently as Wednesday, top seeded Jannik Sinner, he of the 31-match win streak, appeared to be heading for a coronation, and a career Grand Slam. Now, for the first time in the Open era, there will be nobody in the round of 16 who has won a major title. Even the man with 24 of them, Novak Djokovic, couldn’t survive the wave of upsets and upstarts that has left a vast stretch of the draw seed-free.
We all love a high-stakes final between No. 1 and 2, but this to me feels refreshingly messy and potentially riveting. Between them, Sinner, Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz had won the last 15 majors. With all of them gone, virtually everyone left in the draw will have a legitimate chance to win their first Slam. They’ll also have to deal with that fact.
Gilles Simon, who knows something about being locked out of major contention by a ruling elite, described the new dynamic on Twitter:
“I’ve never seen anything like it in 20 years,” Simon wrote. “It’s going to be so fascinating to see who gets all tense and, on the contrary, who will be ready to seize their chance because there’s a huge mindset shift to be done here.”
So what can we expect from the first no-Sincaraz, no-Djokovic second week at a major this decade? Here are five things to watch for.
Early evidence suggests that competitive flames will rise
On Thursday, Sinner’s loss gave the rest of the field an unexpected jolt of hope. The next day, that field gave us two instant-classic third-round dogfights.
Joao Fonseca came back from two sets down to stun Djokovic 7-5 in the fifth, in 4 hours, 53 minutes. It was just the second time that Djokovic has lost from two sets up—he’s now 209-2.
Later, Casper Ruud followed suit when he came back from two sets down, and saved two match points, to beat Tommy Paul, also 7-5 in the fifth, in 4 hours, 43 minutes.
Would Fonseca and Ruud have fought so hard if Sinner were still in the draw? Probably. But now they had just a little more motivation, a little more tangible hope, while Djokovic and Paul also had more motivation to fight back.
I thought the level of play, and effort, went up noticeably in the Ruud-Paul match after the news got out that Djokovic had lost.
Not everything will be an epic, of course, but every shot, game, set, and match—and match point saved—will mean just a bit more.
Early evidence also suggests that the new favorites will get tight
Alexander Zverev may have been the name that popped into most fans’ minds when Sinner and Djokovic lost. For good reason. The German is the No. 2 seed, he has never won a major, and he has lost three Slam finals, including a five-setter to Alcaraz here two years ago.
After years of banging on the door, it just opened wide for him. Here is his chance to win one—or fail in the most crushing way yet.
But no pressure.
Was it any surprise that, after Djokovic lost on Friday, Zverev dropped his first set of the tournament, threw in a few too many bailout drop shots, looked up nervously at his dad-coach a few too many times, and stumbled at the finish line in the third set?
Credit Zverev for overcoming all of that and winning in four. But the expectations won’t get any lighter on his shoulders.
The bottom half should be a war
While Zverev is technically the favorite to come out of the lower half because of his seeding, there are four other guys who stand out as obstacles for him.
Rafael Jodar: The 19-year-old has big guns from the ground, and, just as important, he showed a lot of grit in coming back from two sets to one down on Friday.
Joao Fonseca: Jodar’s fellow teen hits every bit as huge, and is coming off the win of a lifetime. How much will he have left after two straight five-setters?
Casper Ruud: Fonseca’s Sunday opponent has also played two five-setters to get here. Like Zverev, he has reached three major finals, including two at RG, and lost all three. I was impressed by his clutch play against Paul, after he likely knew that Djokovic was out.
Andrey Rublev: The Russian likes clay, has been to the quarters here twice, and hasn’t had to go five yet. He could catch an exhausted Ruud or Fonseca in the quarters.